Tag Archive for 'Tony Abbott'

Whatever happened to the vision thing?

George H. W. Bush was famously incapable of projecting what he termed “the vision thing” in his unsuccessful campaign for re-election in 1992, but at least he knew what he needed to, but couldn’t, do.

I noted the other day that Dennis Shanahan was something of a barometer for the current state of the ‘political narrative’. I should have remembered that an even better one, whose often indecipherable columns frequently seem to be pure stream of consciousness, is Malcolm Colless.

Writing today in The Australian, he seems to think he is delivering some sort of killer punch:

Returning from Copenhagen, where he failed to make any ground, Rudd calmly began unveiling a whole series of new visionary canvases depicting future challenges around issues such as health services, population growth and the need for greater productivity to support an ageing community.

One thing that impressed me about Rudd on Q&A last night was that he quite rightly conveyed the message that the government, any government, can’t fix everything. That’s surely just truth, but Tony Jones response in the interchange on the alcopops tax and the drinking age showed the media reflex where the government is expected to have solved every problem yesterday in spades – “But then they’re just drinking something else”. As Rudd pointed out, the stats actually show a fall in alcohol consumption in younger demographics, but apparently that’s immaterial if a policy measure which has some impact doesn’t act as if it’s a magic wand?

What, exactly, is wrong with debating what sort of infrastructure, skills and services are needed for a growing population now? If you stop to think about it outside the drum beat of the political narrative, it’s a hard question to answer.

Kevin Rudd won the 2007 election, in part, because he could articulate a longer term vision. John Howard didn’t have one for even a single term, let alone one for the nation. What sort of Australia would Tony Abbott like to shape? We simply don’t know, if we were to go on his current public statements. His timescale is the eternal now, the cost of milk, today’s political opportunity, a soundbite from question time. Lost in the endless stream of applause for his being “pugilistic”, “authentic”, “interesting”, etc. is any debate about what he might actually do as Prime Minister, let alone any public debate on what are urgent questions which we must address as a nation.

Sure, Rudd can be criticised for raising expectations about a quick fix to the health system. But why are so many so critical when he actually does have to negotiate his way through a complex policy domain with multiple stakeholders? What would Tony Abbott’s “decisive” or “direct action” on health actually imply? Do any of the commentators even stop to think about what the answer might be?

Turnbull on climate change policy

Former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull spoke in the House of Representatives today, in debate on the reintroduced CPRS bills. Bernard Keane has a full wrap at The Stump. From Keane’s coverage, it appears that Turnbull devoted most of his time to demolishing Tony Abbott’s plan:

Turnbull tore apart the proposed plan as economically inefficient, environmentally ineffective and unable to meet the task of reducing Australia’s emissions by 5% by 2020.

Update: Peter Martin reproduces the text of Turnbull’s speech.

Tony Abbott: Nothing if not consistent

Abbott on tv today:

What the housewives of Australia need to understand as they do the ironing, is that if they get it done commercially, it’s gonna go up in price, and their own power bills as they switch the iron on are gonna go up every year, I mean…

I guess that’s ‘retail politics’, Abbott style. Patriarchy and a deceptive scare campaign all neatly wrapped up in one package.

Shock! Horror! Political journosphere shocked by the ALP playing politics!

Ben Eltham has a wrap up of the week in politics at New Matilda. It’s certainly fair to say that it certainly didn’t go all the Coalition’s way. What surprises me about the commentary we’ve seen in the lead up to and after the resumption of Parliament is some sort of default assumption that Tony Abbott would release his climate change policy, and happily elope with the voters, and that’s the last we’d hear of politics in an election year. Dennis Shanahan is, as always, indicative:

THE Rudd government has an unhealthy obsession with Tony Abbott’s obsessions. As parliament prepares to resume on Tuesday for the first sitting in an election year, some Labor ministers are spending so much time reinforcing adverse stereotypes of the new Liberal leader they run the double risk of appearing to be in a panic and of actually validating his policies and leadership.

KEVIN Rudd’s emissions trading scheme is dead but he can’t let it go. Politically he should shift ground to alternative action on climate change, blame Tony Abbott for the failure of a scheme previously favoured by Liberal leaders, and use the global failure to agree on a concerted plan as a reprieve before the election.

There’s some sort of bizarre alternate reality here, where the Opposition is constantly at the centre of events, and any sort of response which doesn’t play to the ‘media narrative’ from the Government is somehow electoral poison.

It’s just nuts. I suspect, in part, it derives from a belief that if the Liberals could unite behind one leader, all would be plain sailing from there on in. In fact, as one week of Barnaby-isms demonstrates, even without leadership speculation, they’re still shambolic. I think there’s still some sort of weird assumption that the Liberals are the natural party of government, and that the electorate are finally waking up to the mistake made in 2007; hence Labor is represented as being panic stricken after a single poll where their two party preferred vote is 52-48. (John Howard’s first term government, by contrast, spent a large part of the time behind in the polls.)

So we also get a bizarre perception that Labor is some sort of immovable object, locked in behind last year’s politics, and unable to shape the political landscape. This is reinforced by constant generalisation on the basis of anecdote – “voters are concerned by debt and deficit”, “Rudd is untrustworthy”, “climate change skepticism is on the increase”, very little of which has much support in any relevant polling. And the descent of Rudd’s own approval rating from its stellar heights is seen as an avatar of doom, without any particular attempt to correlate it with the party vote.

All very odd.

Like I said early in the week, watch the political narrative change.

Department of Climate Change analysis of Coalition policy

… The text can be accessed here [link to pdf].

The cultural politics and sociology of anti-science in Tony Abbott’s Australia

Overland editor Jeff Sparrow has a great piece in Crikey today, reflecting on the significance of Christopher Monckton’s tour of Australia. If you’re not signed up, I’d strongly urge you to take out a trial subscription to read the whole thing.

Sparrow examines how the ground for a populist upsurge of climate change denialism among “the old, the white and the angry” was well prepared by the Howard era culture wars. Continue reading ‘The cultural politics and sociology of anti-science in Tony Abbott’s Australia’

Putting a figure on the Coalition’s shadow carbon price

The politics of the Coalition’s climate policy announcement has already been covered by Mark, but the policy also contains some pretty dodgy accounting, as I argued in my piece yesterday for New Matilda.

Today I thought I’d take some time to unpick those rubbery carbon reduction figures. Continue reading ‘Putting a figure on the Coalition’s shadow carbon price’

Tony Abbott, you’re no Mark Latham

Possum has compared Tony Abbott’s polling with Mark Latham’s at the start of his leadership, and found:

So while Abbott and Latham have some similarities in their early polling performance, Abbott was literally miles behind where Latham was at a comparable time.

The politics of ‘direct action’ on Climate Change

After last night’s round of interviews with Tony Abbott and Barnaby Joyce, one thing is clear about the Coalition’s climate change policy.

No one believes in it.

They’ve come to this pass because of the momentum of the twin drives to dethrone Malcolm Turnbull and the internal politics of climate change denialism in the Coalition and among the so-called ‘Liberal base’.

Abbott’s ‘direct action’ is supposed to provide a point of contrast between bike-riding muscular Tony (and don’t for a minute think all these photos and all the tv vision of him in togs and exercising is coincidental) and that blancmange of a bureaucrat, KRudd. But the Coalition is stuck with the windy rhetoric that none of them actually care for – either because they don’t believe climate change is real, or because they know it is, and this is an epic fail.

That’s another reason why the contradictions in this thing won’t easily be papered over, and selling it will be very difficult.

So, just whose policy sounds more complex now?

Presiding as he has been over the Nationals-isation of the Liberal Party, Tony Abbott might pause to consider one of Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s bon mots:

You can’t straddle both sides of a barbed-wire fence.

The first stage of selling the Coalition’s climate change policy hasn’t gone well. Barnaby Joyce was positively incoherent on Lateline, and wanted to talk about anything but the policy itself. Significantly, perhaps, when asked about his new role, his response was something along the lines of “I’m not exactly fascinated”. Really. Maybe for both him and his boss, being an oppositionalist ‘retail politician’ and mouthing off about anything and everything is a more comfortable space than having to defend a policy position.

That certainly appeared to be the case for Tony Abbott on the 7.30 Report tonight.

His inability to justify the lie about the cost of the CPRS to taxpayers aside, Abbott found out that it’s very hard to straddle the denialist constituency *and* maintain the fiction that he wants to do something to abate carbon emissions. And it’s not going to get any easier for him.

What might have appeared over summer to the Abbotariat to be a tactical master stroke is now meeting political reality. And on the first day that Kevin Rudd found a way of concisely explaining the ETS.*

*Even, if, unfortunately, it doesn’t really punish polluters as much as it should.*

What does a conservative leader of the Liberal party look like?

… and no, I won’t be posting a photo of Tony Abbott in any form of swimwear to answer that question. But it’s interesting to observe the blue thread that runs through all of Abbott’s pronouncements – a mindset that Father Knows Best. The answer to the question posed by Ben Eltham in New Matilda, writing on the Coalition’s climate change policy [see this post for LP discussion] – “have the Libs lost faith in the market?” – is surely that conservatives don’t necessarily have faith in it. The Howard government’s practice, in many respects, was as much conservative as neo-liberal, if not more – an increasingly large state, a dirigiste approach to doling out public money to corporations, all manner of attempted pro-family social engineering, and so forth. To some degree, the era of 80s bipartisanship on ‘economic reform’ left an institutional and legal bias towards economic liberalism in state institutions; Treasury, the Productivity Commission, competition law, and so on. But with a lazy Treasurer, for most of the time, Howardism only used economic liberalism as a fig leaf.

I think what we’re seeing now, with Tony Abbott, is that fig leaf being discarded.

We’re back to old fashioned paternalism – faith, country, and trust in your betters. And in the economic sphere, Abbott, who knows nothing much of economics, is happy for the state to sit down and carve up the pie in consultation with his preferred interest groups. All this is really classic National Party stuff.

What’s perhaps astonishing on the surface, at least, is how little we’re hearing from the so-called libertarians and classical liberals about Abbott’s lack of faith in the market. Could it be that they’re mostly more interested in anti-Labor partisanship than their own ostensible creed?

Coalition climate policy

If you’ve got the stomach for it, the policy is here.

The policy – if it deserves the title – is essentially a grab-bag of carbon abatement policies funded by taxation. It’s not a big new tax, it’s a big new expense that will either get paid for by cutting something else, increasing the deficit, or increasing taxes elsewhere.

The seriousness of the individual measures might be best judged by a promise to plant 20 million new trees. 20 milllion new trees, at a rough approximation, is about the equivalent of 20,000 hectares of forest. Australia’s forested area is about 150 million hectares.

Elsewhere: Peter Wood’s post points to the nonsensical apples-and-oranges cost comparisons in the policy. Christine Milne has a press release which notes a few bright spots but overall thoroughly slams the policy.

Update [by Mark]: Ben Eltham analyses the policy in New Matilda:

The party of free enterprise has proposed a policy of free pollution.

Newspoll Labor 52-48: Watch the political narrative shift

The first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s 2PP at 52, and the Coalition ahead by one point on primaries at 41, with The Greens steady on 9. By contrast, Essential Research has Labor on a 2PP of 56. Interestingly, in light of what I was saying last week, Essential Research asked respondents about the firmness of their voting intention:

Table borrowed from Possum.

Make of that what you will, but I find it very interesting indeed. One consequence, if you go with the hypothesis about Abbott firming up the Coalition’s base vote, is that Labor voters may also be becoming more confirmed in their partisan choice. We don’t have data on this, except for this one snapshot, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Liberals’ strategy of opposition to pretty much everything has begun to polarise parts of the electorate.

Of interest also will be the new media narrative. That bit of it which will emanate from the Abbotariat is so predictable it’s barely worth sketching. But Kevin Rudd and Labor won’t be at all unhappy with this result (which, remember, still has them in much the same winning position as in the last election). It’ll fit perfectly their strategy of putting pressure on Abbott to answer questions as if he were a possible PM (arising, for instance, from the Intergenerational Report and the associated issue of healthcare costs, his stance on the private health rebate). As I’ve remarked, his climate change policy, to be released tomorrow, will be framed by the Government as economic pie in the sky, which will reinforce perceptions turning up in focus groups that he’s a risky economic proposition.

And there’s no harm at all in geeing up your own troops in the face of the possibility of an Abbott ascension. That’s the flipside of the Women’s Weekly kerfuffle, which Labor will hope on one hand will play into perceptions that Abbott wants the state to intrude too far into private matters (which the Essential Research polling is showing up), and on the other, will prompt those of us who are very much agin this sort of thing to have a yarn to less committed friends and colleagues.

Update: Possum on Newspoll.

Update: Jonathan Green at The Drum.

Karen Brooks on Tony the Abbott and ‘His’ Women

Karen Brooks’ post on Tony Abbott’s now infamous interview with the Women’s Weekly is the best piece I’ve read about its implications. Read it here.

Great big new tax scare campaign game: Two can play

Both the Government and the Coalition are publicly committed to a 5% emissions reduction target. Tony Abbott claims he will get there via ‘direct action’ and avoid the ‘great big new tax on everything’ – his characterisation of Labor’s ETS.

Kevin Rudd today:

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is warning voters that the coalition’s approach to climate change will be very costly.

He says the policy, to be unveiled by Opposition Leader Tony Abbott on Tuesday, will be a large tax with very little environmental impact.

‘One huge mega tax from Mr Abbott to fund his approach to climate change,’ Mr Rudd told the Nine Network.

When in doubt, muddy the waters?

According to the Abbotariat, the big problem with the Government’s approach is supposed to be that the public doesn’t, on the whole, understand the detail of the ETS. Kevin Rudd is betting that no one understands what Abbott’s proposing either. Labor’s line will be that Abbott’s claims that he can fund over 10 billion dollars of policy (according to the Department of Climate Change’s costings) through unspecified efficiencies are spurious, and that he would have to raise revenue to fund his promises. Labor, supposedly, won’t, because the ETS is meant to be budget neutral.

All this is fairly complex, but we won’t see much of that complexity debated in the public arena during an election year. Kevin Rudd’s playing one of the oldest tricks in the book – make your opponent deny something you claim they’re going to do, and hope that:

(a) they’re perceived as less trustworthy; and/or

(b) obfuscating the issue will make everyone discount it because neither side can be believed.

It’ll probably work.

Continue reading ‘Great big new tax scare campaign game: Two can play’