I’m boycotting Channel Nine tonight, because I fear that the Mark Latham “controversy”/60 Minutes cross-promotion will “overshadow” everything else, given that the marauding cub reporter gate crashed Tony Abbott’s veterans affairs announcement at the Penrith RSL this morning. [Video here if you are interested.]

Channel Seven’s not giving all that much prominence to the campaign either, leading with the gaoling of a Brisbane cat killer, a cancer-stricken pensioner’s house burning down in Inala, and more wild weather in Queensland – “an icy burst of Southern air”. Yep, folks, the Ekka winds have come with a vengeance this year. And then we had the beached barge at the Gold Coast. And continuing the nautical theme, 17 sailor folk (“the mates”) have been rescued and are back in town safely.

So on a rather unseasonably cold Brisneytown night, for which we blame “Southern states”, we heard that Julia Gillard’s “message” on Broadband was overshadowed by Mark Latham. Even though Latho gate crashed Mr Rabbit’s event. Seven took a side swipe at Nine, and suggested that the veterans “told him where to go”.

Then we got Mr Rabbit “down with the people” at Rooty Hill and he “spoke their language”, swearing about his mortgage. The opposition leader was said to be “buoyed by his victory”, and Seven borrowed LP’s line about Latham being an equal opportunity pest.

Bob Hawke was wandering around, and Julia Gillard was kissed by shoppers in Perth.

And so it goes…

Update: I’ll also be interviewed on ABC News Radio drive time at around 5.45pm.

I’m voting for Kylie Minogue.

Direct communication by political parties is also important, tending to trump the febrile discourse of the national print media in effectively communicating with electors.

Much of this also goes under the radar, particularly outside the cities, or the areas where journos themselves tend to live. An example is the direct dissing of Kevin Rudd in the ‘sustainability’ mailout Labor distributed in Macquarie last week.

This is your chance to tell us anything notable you’re receiving in your mailbox, and what you think it means. By all means scan stuff in, and link, should you wish.

The story follows a report in today’s Fairfax papers that Kevin Rudd’s chief of staff, Alister Jordan, had been asked to take soundings among MPs on the Prime Minister’s behalf, and claims from The Australian that Julia Gillard had done herself and her party a dis-service by not initiating the challenge the paper had been talking up at yesterday’s caucus.

Update: There’s now a report on the ABC News website.

Update: The Twitter hashtag #spill is being revived… though #ruddroll also has its admirers.

Update: Kerry O’Brien says there’ll be more later on in the 7.30 Report. Meanwhile, the most astute summary on Twitter comes from RachWelsh who points out that some tweeting journos with sources are saying something is happening, and others are not.

Update: Heather Ewart on the 7.30 Report claimed that meetings were taking place between elements of the NSW and Victorian Right, and Mark Arbib is said to have defected from Rudd. She reported that Gillard is meeting with Rudd, but of course, Gillard may be meeting with Rudd to quash the unchallenge. Or not.

Update: Fairfax reports (at 7.39pm) that Gillard’s office has said “nothing has changed”.

Update: There’s very little news among all the noise. Bill Shorten is said to be one of those orchestrating the unchallenge, and the AWU has reportedly withdrawn its support for Rudd.

Julia Gillard, Wayne Swan, Anthony Albanese and John Faulkner are reported to be in Kevin Rudd’s office.

Gillard is reported to be not intending to challenge.

This micro-event, it would seem, has been brought to you by the genius “strategists” who talked Rudd into dropping the ETS in the first place, setting in train his plunge in the polls. The NSW Right, as I’ve said before, knows no other response to bad focus groups than to bring on a leadership challenge. Political courage and leadership is unknown among the apparatchiks and Sussex Street types.

And we’ve also had an unprecedented campaign against the PM from the media and the mining industry. While I’d like to see Gillard become PM, the Labor Party would be insane to dump Rudd now, and nor should they.

This will be highly damaging, coming as it does just at the point when it appeared that things could be turned around for the government. If I were Julia Gillard, I’d urge Rudd to convene a caucus meeting tomorrow morning, and personally move a confidence motion in his leadership. And heads should roll in the ALP. Soon.

Update: The Punch, which is live blogging what is still the unchallenge, reports that John Faulkner between Gillard and Rudd.

I’ll repeat what I said before: if the ALP dumps Rudd now, it will be the height of stupidity, and be a demonstration of nothing but craven cowardice in the face of a media/mining industry orchestrated campaign, at a time when the polls indicate, despite a low primary vote, the ALP is still odds on to win the election.

Update: Paul Howes has just Tweeted that he’ll be on Lateline to explain the AWU’s position.

Update: Rachel Hills says it all on Twitter:

I feel like much of the anti-Rudd sentiment recently is more journalists getting bored with him than a newfound excess of crapness. #spill

Update: The Drum editor Jonathan Green on Twitter:

a certain smugness in the media at this coup by commentariat

Update: Sky News is reporting Kevin Rudd will be giving a press conference in the next 5 to 10 minutes.

Update: Lots of Tweets claiming that Rudd is about to quit.

Update: Rudd’s press conference will be televised live on ABC1 very soon.

Update: Rudd has convened caucus to meet at 9am. Gillard will be challenging. He is not standing down.

Update: Rudd indicates he will be running against faction and union domination. He is also running against the NSW Right, indicating that if he wins he will not be retreating from the RSPT, or giving in to calls for a hardline on asylum seekers. He suggested forward movement on climate change.

Update: New thread here.

How’s it looking by Wednesday?

I was asked on another thread about ways the government can talk over the heads of the media. I was thinking more about this, reflecting on how yesterday’s proceedings in Parliament appeared on the tv news last night.

The 125 000 readers of The Australian, as Mr Denmore observed, are a very small proportion of the electorate. They might include every single press gallery journo, but nightly grabs on the news have some considerable resonance to publics beyond the way they were framed.

Television is still, by far, the predominant source of political information for voters.

The ‘leadership’ narrative only resulted in vision of a series of Ministers and Labor MPs strongly defending Kevin Rudd. Meanwhile, the Opposition was bizarrely warning mining companies not to negotiate with the government, as Rudd pursues a more differentiated strategy to break the unity of the industry peak body and the Coalition. It’s pretty clear to anyone who thinks for a moment that the Liberals are pursuing their own interest, not the national interest. As I’ve previously remarked, they could well be left out on a limb if a deal is reached.

One other way of thinking about the recent polls, and the drift away from Labor (but not strongly to the Coalition) is of volatility in the electorate rather than a desire to punish, or vote out, the government. If that were the case, we’d expect a much stronger swing to the Liberals. Giving Labor the chance to deliver a positive message on tv is just one way the media narrative can backfire. And it’s worth remembering, once again, what Essential Research found about derisory levels of public trust in the media.

The political conjuncture is still very fluid.

And anyone reading Dennis Shanahan today would have noticed a slight shifting of the bar. It’s certainly not out of the question that the ‘media narrative’ will still collapse in the face of reality.

However, they’re also promising some kind of meta-analysis of public polling on climate change, that purportedly makes clear “…that concern amongst voters about climate change has “softened” over the past eighteen months.”

I’ll be interested to see what the poll bloggers make of it…

Currently, along with all the other festivals that are no doubt happening at the moment, Melbourne is hosting the Melbourne International Film Festival (MIFF). Films worth seeing during MIFF include Persepolis (fans of Marjane Satrapi’s gorgeous graphic novels should make sure to see that flick). Since I already possess the DVD, I won’t bother forking out to see Barry McKenzie Holds His Own, but if you haven’t seen this Australian, ahem, classic, it’s a nice night’s entertainment. The other day, I saw Rock ‘n’ Nerd, which was an interesting insight into the career of Tim Minchin. Since deciding to change his image from that of a talented nice Perth boy with short curly hair to that of a talented nice Perth boy with a messy mane, Minchin’s career has gone from strength to strength. Rock ‘n’ Roll Nerd shows all the stresses and joys that go with being an increasingly popular singing satirist piano playing dude. The YouTube video features Tim performing “Dark Side”, a song about trying to be deep because you’re girlfriend wants you to be deep, even though you’re not deep at all.

Update: Fans of Summer Heights High please note that August 10 is Sorry Ranga Day. “Sorry, Ranga”. (Sorry Ranga Day is an initiative of ABC Commercial).