Tag Archive for 'Vic election 2006'

Newspoll and the Greens

Published
by
Paul Norton
1 year, 7 months ago
in Federal Elections, Media, Politics and State/Territory Elections
. 33 Comments

The Newspoll in this morning’s Australian shows the Greens polling 6 per cent of the primary vote, down from 7.2 per cent in the 2004 election.

Newspolls this year have consistently had the Greens vote fluctuating around the 5 per cent mark, and this has resulted in commentary in the Oz and some other Murdoch papers about a supposed decline in Greens support.

Allow me to present some evidence in support of an alternative hypothesis: that Newspoll, for whatever reason, is underestimating the Greens vote.
Continue reading ‘Newspoll and the Greens’

Until we have clean coal…

Published
by
Paul Norton
1 year, 8 months ago
in Climate change, Energy, Environment, Federal Elections and State/Territory Elections
. 58 Comments

In Australia’s climate change debate, the major sticking point between the Labor Party on one hand, and the Greens and environmental non-government organisations on the other, is over the role that “clean coal” technology can play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. State Labor governments and the Federal ALP are committed to developing clean coal technologies as a way of enabling Australia’s coal industry to continue to prosper whilst substantially reducing carbon dioxide emissions. The Greens and environmental NGOs maintain that “clean coal” is an oxymoron, are sceptical about the sustainability and economic feasibility of technologies such as geosequestration, and that achieving the required reductions in greenhouse gas emissions requires, in the words of Australian Conservation President Ian Lowe, that the world “burn a lot less coal”.

A good deal of confusion has entered the debate in terms of the temporal and spatial scale of the problem and possible solutions, and Australia’s specific national contribution to such solutions. On the one hand, ending Australian coal exports may have little effect on greenhouse emissions globally in the absence of action by our major customers to transform their economies on a carbon-constrained basis, as they will be able to source their coal from domestic sources or from other suppliers. On the other hand even the most optimistic proponents of clean coal technologies acknowledge that they are not likely to be making significant inroads into emissions from coal-fired power generation until at least 2020.

And there is the rub, at least as far as domestic greenhouse policy is concerned.
Continue reading ‘Until we have clean coal…’

Cosying up to police unions…

Published
by
Robert Merkel
1 year, 9 months ago
in Elections, Ethics, Industrial Relations, Law, Politics and State/Territory Elections
. 14 Comments

Well, our collective pre-Victorian election idle speculation on what had been offered to Paul Mullett’s police union has now been answered fully. AM got the scoop, and the full document and extensive analysis are at The Age.

Tim Dunlop notes an obvious problem with the deal: the public was kept in the dark, while The Oz observes that the practice of Police Ministers doing deals directly with police unions and cutting Police Commissioners out was condemned in the Fitzgerald Enquiry.

It’s obvious that deals like this aren’t great. An equally interesting question for me, however, is why Bracks feels such a need to keep Paul Mullett on side. Law and order may have receded as a political issue a little, but it seems state governments are like rabbits in the headlights when it comes to the threat of opposition from police unions.

Shadow summit

Published
by
Mark
1 year, 10 months ago
in Climate change, Federal Elections, Government, Policy, Politics, State/Territory Elections and Water
. 36 Comments

Richard Farmer has an interesting argument to make in today’s Crikey about Rudd’s climate summit:

There is a danger for Labor Leader Kevin Rudd that his gimmick of having what he is calling a climate change summit will end up being one of those things that seemed to be a good idea at the time.

To put it somewhat crudely, Rudd is at risk of being seen as a smart arse – a politician being too clever by half.

While John Howard is delivering an actual policy to deal with at least part of the country’s water problem through his meeting of state premiers to arrange a federal takeover of the Murray-Darling Basin, Mr Rudd will be engaging in a talk-fest. Actions will surely create a better political outcome than words.

The motivation for Rudd’s summit is understandable enough. He is trying to overcome the advantages that being able to actually do things gives to an incumbent government.

Yet by settling on the need for a discussion to determine a broader strategy than that of Howard, Rudd is being left open to attack on the grounds that it shows how hamstrung a future Federal Labor Government would by the need to appease the eight state and territory governments.

This move highlights two problems with Rudd’s strategy - the first being that his experience in Goss’ Cabinet Office makes him think like someone who is in government. But he’s not. The challenges for an opposition leader are quite different. Although Labor is well ahead in the polls, Rudd has no power, and nothing to offer except promises to enforce agreement. The responses from Premiers to issues like recycled water and Howard’s Murray-Darling bid have been inconsistent. The incentives for Premiers to play to their own electorates at a talkfest like this outweigh those to present a united front with the Federal opposition. There’s a clear risk that the summit could end up displaying disunity - which raises the second problem about which I’ve previously written - there’s almost infinite potential to wedge Rudd and the states.

It’s no doubt one of Rudd’s strengths that he is skilled in, and capable of, broad consultation and thrashing out a policy approach that has wide support among stakeholders. But again, this is a skill of governance, not opposition. In 2001, Howard was able to make some play with the line that Beazley avoided firm commitments and promised inquiries and commissions and reports. It’s a good political line, because voters expect clear and contrasting policy positions from Opposition leaders, not meetings and briefing papers.

Continue reading ‘Shadow summit’

The Greens Flop Their Way to Power in Victoria

Published
by
Paul Norton
1 year, 11 months ago
in Federal Elections, Media, Politics and State/Territory Elections
. 17 Comments

The morning after polling day in the Victorian State election, Jason Koutsoukis in the Sunday Age offered this sage analysis of the Green’s performance in the election:

But there was one big loser in the federal arena last night and that was Greens leader Senator Bob Brown, whose overblown rhetoric about the Greens stealing a clutch of seats came to little. The Greens’ vote went backwards yesterday - a major embarrassment for Brown, who put his heart and soul into the Greens campaign.

The real question now is just how influential will the Greens be in next year’s federal election?

They were a flop in 2004, they were a flop yesterday and all indications are that the Greens will flop again at the 2006 (sic) federal election.

Now that counting has concluded, the full extent of the Greens’ flop in Victoria is clear.
Continue reading ‘The Greens Flop Their Way to Power in Victoria’

Worst. Electoral. System. Evah!

Published
by
Mark
1 year, 11 months ago
in Politics and State/Territory Elections
. 131 Comments

The Poll Bludger reports that the DLP have won two seats in the Victorian Upper House. Santamaria’s ghost garnered 1.97% of the statewide primary. Family First got 3.86% and didn’t win a seat. The Greens, with 10.6%, won two seats just as the DLP did.

Elsewhere: At Urban Creature, Aaron looks at what a proportionate result would have been. Andrew Norton looks on the brighter side. And Andrew Bartlett has an interesting take on the resurrection of the DLP.

Bye bye Boz?

Published
by
Mark
2 years ago
in Politics and State/Territory Elections
. 12 Comments

From today’s Crikey email:

Queensland Nationals will have been carefully studying the results of the Victorian election last week. The Nats have picked up at least one seat and, even more importantly, vastly improved their primary vote. And they’ve done it with a level of “product differentiation” from the Libs which has been accurately characterised as “hatred”.

Veteran Senator and Nats Senate Leader, Ron Boswell, faces the preselectors on Saturday. He has the fulsome endorsement of John Howard, but the Prime Minister’s claim that “Ron is no lackey of the Liberals” may not cut the mustard with the Queensland party. State parliamentarians and office-holders have made no secret of the fact that they’d like Boswell to step down, and in fact the Senator himself promised last time he scraped through his last preselection that this would be his last term.

The Nats’ new state leader, Jeff Seeney, has previously commented that “new blood” is needed in the Senate.

Continue reading ‘Bye bye Boz?’

Democrats on the comeback trail?

Published
by
Mark
2 years ago
in Culture, Federal Elections, Media, Politics and State/Territory Elections
. 40 Comments

From today’s Crikey email:

One aspect of the Victorian result that hasn’t attracted any comment is the implications for the Democrats federally. Except in the blogosphere. Graham Young at Ambit Gambit believes that the Greens failed to capture the protest vote to the greatest extent possible, and that their static vote might presage better things for the Democrats in the federal poll next year than pundits are crediting.

Analysis of the minor parties vote in the Victorian election has been muddied by spin. Family First and the Greens are both keen to claim that the results prove they’ve either consolidated their position or arrived on the scene as a force to be reckoned with.

While the Democrats ran candidates, unlike in the Queensland election, they effectively ran dead. They’re harnessing their remaining enthusiasm and resources for the fight to re-elect their Senators next year.

Long term governments, such as Bracks’s in Victoria and Beattie’s in Queensland, inevitably disappoint some of their own supporters. In the context of a lacklustre opposition, not only disillusioned Labor voters but also swinging voters who have no time for the alternative government look for a vehicle for protest.

Continue reading ‘Democrats on the comeback trail?’

Which (federal) side are the Greens on?

Published
by
Mark
2 years ago
in Federal Elections, Politics, Sociology and State/Territory Elections
. 223 Comments

From today’s Crikey email:

The Greens’ lower house challenge in Victoria may have fizzled, at least compared to the campaign triumphalism, but its implications for future federal elections are intriguing.

Unlike the Democrats, the Greens do have a more geographically concentrated support base, which makes the chance of winning lower house seats a possibility.

And realistically, the Greens can only take lower house seats off Labor – because essentially they’re playing to a similar constituency which is also part of Labor’s electoral coalition – inner city progressives.

As the old working class nature of inner city seats has largely been wiped away by both social change and gentrification, that constituency is also more important to Labor majorities.

Continue reading ‘Which (federal) side are the Greens on?’

The Dysfunctional Rabble and the National Pork Party

Published
by
Robert Merkel
2 years ago
in Federal Elections, Politics and State/Territory Elections
. 20 Comments

One minor surprise that came out of the Victorian election was the resilience of the Nationals, who retained all their seats and pinched Mildura back from independent Russell Savage. I don’t know much about the specifics of Mildura local politics, so I certainly don’t have any special insight as to why the good burghers of Mildura decided to give an independent the toss this time around. Savage himself stated that it was likely about a Nationals campaign forucssing heavily on the Nowagi Toxic Waste Dump, to be built south of the town.

But, more generally, what did the National Party do to fend off the Liberals in their existing seats?
Continue reading ‘The Dysfunctional Rabble and the National Pork Party’

The Fifth Most Popular Party

Published
by
Gummo Trotsky
2 years ago
in Politics and State/Territory Elections
. 18 Comments

According to Sue Hewitt in today’s Hun ):

Family First has emerged as a new political force in Victoria, polling as fifth most popular party across both houses.

That’s the sort of political analysis you have to settle for when you wake up too late to get to the corner shop before all the copies of The Age have been sold.
Continue reading ‘The Fifth Most Popular Party’

Mediocrity rules (apparently)

Published
by
Aaron Hewett
2 years ago
in Politics and State/Territory Elections
. 89 Comments

Well that’s nearly the end of it. A boring, predictable election campaign followed by a boring, predictable result. With the exception of a few seats in the lower house where the votes are tight and the fifth seats in the upper house regions, most of the seats have been decided. Bracksy will be immortalised in bronze.

Bracksy will, of course, will live to see himself in bronze. A fate possibly not reserved for Peter Garrett. After soiling his credibility with the environment movement last week, greenies are likely to make him into a bronze statue also - but with him trapped inside it.

So how did others cope on election night and its aftermath? I’m sure the Laborites are smiling about the result not being as bad as it could have been. Greens (like me) are anxious to find out the end results, particularly in the upper house, but are generally happy about how we went in the election. Family Firsters will be too busy attending church or popping out babies and the Exclusive Brethren won’t know the election result because they’re not allowed to read newspapers or use the internet. The Liberals are possibly a little disappointed that they couldn’t do better but are generally happy with picking up a few seats and not losing too many. Peter Ryan and the Nationals will be elated because they picked up some extra seats and should retain party status.

I don’t think many will be too disappointed about the election result. Which is probably a bad thing and a sign of how mediocre the campaign really was.

Elsewhere [by MB]: Graham Young at Ambit Gambit dissects the result, and thinks that the Greens might have missed capturing part of the potential protest vote, and that therefore there’s some hope for the Democrats in next year’s Federal election.

Link to Victorian count live blogging

Published
by
Mark
2 years ago
in Culture, Notices and State/Territory Elections
. 118 Comments

It’s all happening at The Poll Bludger.

National Forum polling on water and the Victorian election

Published
by
Mark
2 years ago
in Climate change, Environment, Politics and State/Territory Elections
. 12 Comments

From today’s Crikey email:

The Victorian election is the first to be held since the crystallisation of the link between the drought and climate change has fundamentally shifted the politics of both the environment and infrastructure across Australia.

Quantitative and qualitative research conducted by Graham Young and me for The National Forum shines a light on the importance of these issues. Water has been one of the few issues in the campaign to get much traction in the public mind. In our quantitative polling, 36% of 250 respondents nominated water as a key issue.

While Melbourne faces only level two water restrictions, regional cities are not so lucky. Bendigo and Ballarat are both at level four, and Geelong is about to join them. Victorian voters are keenly aware of the water crisis, and many have made the link with climate change. The polling is intriguing, therefore, in that it sheds light on how these issues will play out electorally.

The story is good news for the Bracks government. Respondents were appreciative of the appointment of John Thwaites to a portfolio including water, and there’s no evidence that voters are inclined to ascribe blame to Labor.

The Baillieu led Opposition has tried to dramatise the issue by promising to build a desalination plant, and a new dam on the Maribynong River. Neither promise has cut much ice with voters in our focus group. They’re sceptical about whether desalination is either viable or cost effective. And the dam is dismissed with scorn, with one focus group participant deriding it as “fatuous�. Several respondents pointed out that for a dam to fill, you need rain.

As David, 80, of Fairfield, put it, “Perhaps Family First could all pray for rain�.

Baillieu’s promises seem to be consistent with the Liberals’ policy approach generally – promising quick and expensive fixes to problems voters perceive as ingrained. But they’re met with scepticism, while Labor’s policy work on water was characterised by Jamie, 59, of Frankston:

“Bracks and co were the first to realize that water needed real attention. A dedicated, senior minister. Again, real policy takes time and work. They started 4 yrs ago.�

There’s probably a message for the Federal Government too. Voters are sceptical of responses which can be characterised as “pulling a rabbit out of a hat� and respectful of a record of serious recognition of environmental issues and their infrastructure implications.

Elsewhere: Graham Young discusses the Greens’ lower house chances.

Place your bets

Published
by
Mark
2 years ago
in Markets, Politics and State/Territory Elections
. 27 Comments

Centrebet is again trying to make the Victorian election an interesting proposition for punters by offering odds on the number of seats Labor will win. In the Queensland election, I tipped 60, while the Poll Bludger tipped 58. In the end Labor won 59. I’d covered 58, 59 and 60 for $70 each and won $840. The odds were a reflection of the fact that most MSM pundits were tipping in a range from 50 to 53.

This time around, the short odds are for a result for Victorian Labor between 52 and 54. The Poll Bludger’s prediction of 53 is at 7 to 1, the shortest odds for any seat pick.

I don’t have enough seat by seat knowledge in Victoria to make my own prediction, but you can read the rationale for the always well informed Poll Bludger call here. Interestingly, the call includes a prediction that Melbourne will fall to the Greens.

The final number of seats seems intuitively right when you compare the Queensland and Victorian campaigns. As our polling disclosed, the dynamics of the overall campaign are very similar to those of Queensland. And Labor is on similar starting points going into the poll - 62 of 88 seats in Victoria, and 63 of 89 in Queensland (ignoring by-election losses). If you want to look at the really big picture, the two differences are that Bracks are a slightly less formidable politician than Beattie (and his government was in less trouble at the start of the campaign) and that the Liberals are a much less shambolic outfit than Dr Flegg’s bumbling roadshow.

It would be more interesting really to have a betting market on the Victorian Upper House, but you’d also be a braver punter to take a risk on picking its composition.