Archive for the 'Disasters' Category

Horror movie… right there on my tv!

On a day when fear ran rampant around “the markets”, some distraction from the Apocalypse might come from considering horror movies.

Incidentally, lots of the pre-tribulationist Rapture watchers in the US have been expecting the world to end on Rosh Hashanah - the Jewish New Year - which is why Congress is closing down for two days. Weird!

Anyways, back on topic. I agree this is the scariest movie scene ever. From Mulholland Drive:

TARP watch: bailout FAILOUT

Vote count:

Democrats: 141 Yea, 94 Nay
Republican: 66 Yea, 132 Nay

The Times - Analysis: bailout vote calls Hank Paulson’s bluff

Negotiators had worked all weekend to accommodate some of the doubts of conservative Republicans who objected to such a massive outlay of taxpayer funds on the financial sector. But in the end the largely superficial changes made to the original plan were not enough and more than three-quarters of Republicans voted against. Worse, perhaps, more than a third of Democrats also opposed the measure, which they saw as a handout to rich bankers on Wall Street.

Now, in effect, the politicians have called the bluff of Hank Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary. Since he first proposed the plan ten days ago he has repeatedly warned that its passage was absolutely essential to avoid a complete freezing-up of the US financial system.

Continue reading ‘TARP watch: bailout FAILOUT’

Does Julie Bishop’s plagiarism matter?

Andrew Norton argues that the controversy over Julie Bishop’s lifting of a form of words from the Wall Street Journal is irrelevant, and tries to excuse it by arguing that politicians recite speeches written by departmental or political staff all the time. Hmmm… I don’t think it’s quite the same thing, for two reasons:

(a) Bishop is being heavily touted by the Opposition and their cheer squad in the media as being part of the magic restoration of the Liberals’ putatively natural advantage on economic management. This despite the fact that Malcolm Turnbull has given zero evidence of departing from either Nelson’s populist nonsense or his own wildly incoherent “inflation doesn’t exist, and if it does, it’s Wayne Swan’s fault” puerilities from earlier in the year. Bishop is a lawyer, and I suppose lawyers prosecute a case for their clients. Perhaps therefore lawyers can be excused from not understanding what they’re saying? Her alleged forensic skills as an advocate are supposed to be one of her pluses - according to the aforesaid press gallery boosters. But isn’t there a problem - as with Peter Costello - when lawyers holding financial portfolios basically know stuff all about the actual economy and are only touted as having “credibility” because they’re able to argue a case?

(b) This stuff sticks. Just ask Joe Biden. He’s still living down having plagiarised Neil Kinnock (of all people) in his unsuccessful run in the presidential primaries in 1988. So in the terms of realpolitik, it doesn’t matter if it should be a problem when politicians plagiarise. When they do, particularly - as with Bishop - right at the start of their tenure in an important new job - it won’t be forgotten by the public.

Diagnosing Market Collapse

Whether exuberant or pessimistic, market expectations tend to gather momentum:

“It is a chicken-and-egg issue,” said Tanya Azarchs, an analyst at S&P. “When Lehman looks as if it’s having trouble raising capital, shares fall. When shares fall, raising capital by selling shares gets harder. Regardless of whether the rumour is true or not, in a way it becomes self-fulfilling.”

Continue reading ‘Diagnosing Market Collapse’

Enough Canberra circus, on with the Wall Street crisis

Brendan and Malcolm have provided a nice little distraction, but it’s time to look at other world news: to wit, another US financial giant has hit the deck (two, if you count the takeover of Merrill Lynch as well as Lehman Brothers filing for Chapter 11). Is the rest of the world going to catch a cold from America sneezing, or will the strength of the BRIC economies keep the global economy relatively robust while only the US coughs its lungs out?

So many pollies and financial wonks with vested interests are telling us all not to panic (and that now is such a good time to place a buy order on the stock market now that everything’s heading for bargain prices, dontcha know) that the very uniformity is more than a little alarming. What insights do the eco-wonks have for the rest of us? Which pundits have the good oil and who are just mouthing platitudes? What the f*ck is going on?

Journos, Moral Panics and “Facebook Parties”

The old days of Press Release Policing are looking decidedly numbered. No longer can you just get some coppers and cameras together on the 6pm news unleashing a bit of the ultraviolence in an effort to scare the kids and reassure the olds. Once you bring web into the foray, you’re putting the narrative at risk, not only for the reasons Mark has discussed here but because you rely on Journalists. Take the author of Daily Terrorgraph story “Riot police break up Facebook party” - the headline aims to elide the Corey moral panic with the latest in series of very well organised and, crucially, free warehouse parties. She describes her job on her own Facebook profile thusly: Continue reading ‘Journos, Moral Panics and “Facebook Parties”’

On Rage: Germaine Greer reviewed

Well, as I noted on another thread about Germaine Greer, I’ve bought and now read On Rage. I’d like this post to stick to discussion of the merits of her arguments, which I continue to think has been something largely absent from most of the debate to date. I also think that very few people who’ve rushed into print have actually read her book, and instead taken the odd comment here or there that she’s made in the course of promoting it and projected all sorts of things onto her.

Even those who have seem to be reacting to parts instead of the whole - for instance, Marcia Langton, describing the remarks about her in the book as an “astonishing attack on me”. That’s quite odd, because Langton is being challenged rather than attacked in the book - challenged to agree with Greer’s view that - on the basis of the evidence - the literal appropriation of Indigenous women’s bodies by white men, something Greer documents with footnoted citations from both historians and contemporary sources - is part of the reason for Indigenous male rage. All the rest of what Langton says - accusations of “a 1970s style argument”, a “panoply of protest slogans deployed as social theory” and so on - unless I’m missing something, appears misdirected, or at least based on inference rather than the text itself. On p. 88 of the book, any reasonable reader would see that Langton is not the one being accused of “collusion” with the state, what she took umbrage at, and that in fact the point being made is that the differential impacts of gender on the colonised is still used by whitefellas as a lever to avoid responsibility and to divide people. There’s a disagreement of view, but not an accusation, and it hardly justifies Langton’s claim that the essay is “racist”.

What Greer is doing in On Rage is a provocation to the degree that it’s asking a range of people differently positioned within Australian culture to reflect on the totality of what has occurred and how ineffectual slogans are - and there are slogans within the talk of the “responsibilities” crew as well - in the absence of both understanding and a genuine coming to terms with the parade of extraordinary horrors that is the story of Indigenous dispossession. Greer’s essay doesn’t make for comfortable reading, and that’s the point. Langton may be justified in taking umbrage at some of the things Greer has said in the course of promoting it, and I can quite understand that, but I think in this instance it’s vital to separate the force and quality of the argument in the text itself from the personality of its author. Much of what has been published and said elsewhere, for instance in Greer’s Sydney Morning Herald op/ed adds to (and in a way detracts from) the argument in the book, rather than reproduces it. Greer might be her own worst enemy in this case, but that doesn’t absolve her interlocutors from reacting with their own rage, or at least spleen.

Continue reading ‘On Rage: Germaine Greer reviewed’

How to live with emissions?

WorleyParsons’ PR coup last week indicated a thirst for big interventions into an otherwise rather bleak energy policy landscape1. The ~$100k feasibility study regurgitated by the MSM (and analysed by Robert here) was, as Brian alluded to, chump change from their handsome profiteering from Canada crapping all over its Kyoto commitments under the Harper Government. It remains to be seen whether WP actually capitalises on its good press and goes ahead with the projects, or simply banks the warm and fuzzies and continues its search for business opportunities elsewhere. If the projects do progress beyond the speculative phase, it would raise some interesting questions around the diversification of a business like theirs into solar (rather than, for example, consolidating its interests in various carbon intensive fields). Continue reading ‘How to live with emissions?’

  1. Two particular stories stand out: (1) Australia’s main carbon capture collective, CO2CRC, flagged the need for an additional $300m to keep the ball rolling on their research; and, (2) In a move which underlines their uninsurability, Parliament moved on legislation to protect Carbon Capture and Storage projects should they leak (or damage lifeforms we have little to no understanding of) ↩[back]

Miracle cure for trachoma found by the Australian Govt Intervention in the NT

I’m not quite sure what it was, but there must have been one, because the AGI health checks on indigenous children in the NT last year did not record a single case. (Update: this claim of zero cases of trachoma recorded, taken from the post linked to below, has been contradicted, although the rate recorded is still extraordinarily low.)

Fred Hollows must be causing a scene around the Pearly Gates in the way he’s kicking himself for missing such a simple and effective solution to a common cause of blindness that was a special concern to him due to Australia’s central desert regions having the highest incidence of trachoma in the world.

The crucial ingredient in miraculously eradicating trachoma appears to be (drumroll) the recruitment primarily of recently-graduated doctors from urban and coastal regions (who’d never seen a case of trachoma before) to do all the health checks in a region where the condition is endemic. Voila! No cases of trachoma recorded! The previous incidence rate of 45% reduced to zero in one strike! Marvellous (and who knows what other medical conditions may also have been eradicated by this daring initiative?). Think of all the funding for blindness programs that can now be re-allocated because there are no more cases of trachoma in the central desert!

I suspect that this miraculous eradication method could quite possibly be effectively adapted elsewhere. What say you?

Update: some of you need your sarcasm meters recalibrated. Yes, the “miracle cure” is pure snark.

Liberal media lunacy III

While it’s reasonable to ask, as Lyn at Public Opinion does, whether tracing every twist and turn of the opposition’s twisted trajectory towards some sort of agreed position on an emissions trading scheme, is to pay too much attention to a “policy cycle of sometimes less than 24 hours [which stretches] the notion of novelty a little far.” However, it could also be suggested that the interest lies in watching the moment that a “media narrative” switches, and as with the Costello crud, observing the process of constructing one, as a few bits and pieces of disconnected nonsense get tied together by assorted columnists and reporters and woven into a new thread that will then become - hey presto! - conventional wisdom, dignified as such on Sundays by the usual Insider suspects. You can shine a light on the way the press gallery mob do “the wisdom of crowds each other” by building a story arc, which then shapes the way the story is moved on.

Continue reading ‘Liberal media lunacy III’

Weitzman’s approach to low-probability, high-impact climate outcomes

There, gentle reader, I have avoided using the term ‘catastrophe’ so that strong messages are appropriately wrapped. Martin Weitzman himself has been more forthright by titling his paper On Modeling and interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. But then he has written 45 pages of mostly econospeak, which carries a different kind of fright. Not existential, but bad enough. Much of it is impenetrable to ordinary mortals. With the help of a couple of interpreters I’ll try to render his message understandable. Anyway this is what I took from Weitzman.

1. Doubling atmospheric CO2 carries a small but unacceptable risk of catastrophic climate change.

2. By catastrophic he means an outcome that threatens civilisation as we know it. We simply can’t ignore the risk. It must be attended to.

3. In the face of truly catastrophic risk the normal practice adopted by economists of applying standard cost-benefit analysis is “wrong, unhelpful, and a dead-end” (from
Kevin Ummel, one of my interpreters). We should do whatever it takes.

4. The uncertainties that give rise to this risk are not the result of inadequate science. Rather they are inherent in the climate system itself.

Continue reading ‘Weitzman’s approach to low-probability, high-impact climate outcomes’

Pope Benedict XVI apologises to victims of sexual abuse in Australia

The text of the papal apology, delivered this morning at a Mass in St Mary’s Cathedral, can be read here.

The symbolism of the setting for the apology - a mass for seminarians and members of religious orders and the consecration of a new altar for the Cathedral - was no doubt intended by the Vatican to signal that the Pope was speaking sternly to those at the centre of the institution. But it’s also deeply problematic - as it suggests that the problem is only one for the church, excluding the victims who were left outside while the pomp and panoply of the liturgy took place for the exclusive benefit of the hierarchy.

Continue reading ‘Pope Benedict XVI apologises to victims of sexual abuse in Australia’

Emma Foster: In memoriam

I hope that Anthony Foster and his family, who intend to confront Pope Benedict XVI and Cardinal George Pell in Sydney this week over the Catholic Church’s treatment of their late daughter, Emma Foster, who took her own life in January and her sister Katie, both of whom were raped as primary school children by Father Kevin O’Donnell, aren’t dismissed as “Catholic bashing” and raining on the World Youth Day parade or subjected to victim blaming as Anthony Jones was. Foster told the tragic tale of his daughters’ abuse and how it marked their lives horrendously for the worse, and probably brought Emma’s life to a close, on Lateline tonight.

Continue reading ‘Emma Foster: In memoriam’

Dorrigo doctors on strike over bureaucratic delay in registration of an overseas-trained recruit to overloaded rural medical centre

Update July 3rd: the Medical Board has now approved the registration of the recruited doctor. Now they just have to get him sorted with a Medicare provider number and he can start providing care to Dorrigo.
* * * * *
From today the two doctors who service the population of Dorrigo are on strike, and at least one of them has resigned from the local hospital as part of their protest: they will continue to attend life or death emergencies and to provide palliative care for the dying, but anyone else in need of medical attention who can make it down the mountain alive to the hospital in Coffs Harbour will be sent there.

dorrigonp-cedarfalls.jpgTheir reason? After finally successfully recruiting a third doctor to alleviate their horrendous workload and provide better services for the Dorrigo community, their overseas-trained recruit (now an Australian citizen) has not been able to gain approval for his registration as a General Practitioner, without which he cannot come and practise in Dorrigo. This final piece of paper was originally supposed to be issued in April when he passed his Board assessment with flying colours, but there has been bureaucratic delay after delay, based on a (ETA) compulsory and arguably inappropriately rigorous assessment of his English competency when he has been working in hospitals here effectively for the last 6 years.

Dr Herb and his colleague just heard that the approval of the registration application has been further delayed until at least the 2nd of July. Unsure of whether this will merely be delayed again, they have declined to renew the lease on the accommodation they had secured for their recruit and his family, as they have been paying hundreds of dollars a week on an empty house since March while waiting for the paperwork to be sorted out, and are unwilling to keep on doing so with no promise of a timely resolution. Suitable accommodation is difficult to find in Dorrigo, and they now don’t know whether, when their recruit is finally approved for registration to practise, they will be able to secure him appropriate accomodation at that time.

In utter frustration, they have decided to go on strike.

Below is the press release from Dr Horst Herb, which was forwarded to me privately by a third party. (I have contacted Dr Herb to ensure that this is definitely from him and that I have his permission to publish it.)
Continue reading ‘Dorrigo doctors on strike over bureaucratic delay in registration of an overseas-trained recruit to overloaded rural medical centre’

I blame Canada

As a follow up to my post yesterday on the Liberals’ revived climate change denialism and the the fear campaign they’re running, I thought I’d point to a couple of interesting signs of the times. Tim Watts at Tree of Knowledge thinks the Libs have taken a leaf from the Canadian Conservatives’ book - the Tories in Canada are running a campaign against Liberal opposition leader Stephane Dion’s support for an emissions trading policy. It’s all couched in terms of “new taxes” and “driving up the price of everything” by putting a… wait for it… tax on petrol. The ads, which you can preview at this woefully designed website, are said by Watts to be going up in petrol stations.

Given Nelson’s populism/desperation on the Fuel Excise Cut, no doubt we can expect to see the same from the Coalition. There will come a time when the electoral value of climate change credentials will have to go head to head with back pocket concerns and the above is not an encouraging vision of the future. Whatever the substance of the response to the Garnaut report, the Government is going to have to engage in some pretty serious ground work in preparing the public for any adverse impacts….

Another report suggests that time may have already come. Continue reading ‘I blame Canada’