Archive for the 'Politics' Category

Rudd one year on

Well, having opened a thread that perhaps proves that Ute Man is still out there but not actually supporting Emo Man, it behoves me, I guess, to have a bit of a say about the tenure of the Rudd government to date. To some degree all these sorts of anniversaries are somewhat artificial, as you can easily see in the United States with the fetish of the “first hundred days”. Governments will eventually be judged by the electorate in due season, as Kevin Rudd would say, and as almost all politicians intone (particularly those who are dissatisfied with their contemporary popularity), in the end they will be judged by history - whose verdict is perhaps as mythical as the Judgement of Paris, but never mind that. However, as I was suggesting, if politics and public discussion is cruelled by the vagaries and obsessions of an ever shorter media cycle, a year really is a long time in government, and it is worth taking stock.

It can also be interesting to compare first term governments at this stage of the electoral cycle, and here the obvious contrast - despite all the media beatups - is the absence of major scandal and ministerial resignations compared to both the Hawke and Howard governments. That doesn’t, of course, imply that all the Labor ministers are fabulous, but it is worth observing.

One of the things that’s interested me in the discussion that had already began quite a while before we reached the actual milestone is that in both comments on this blog and in conversations with some friends I’ve seen the sentiment expressed that simply avoiding hearing a daily litany of horrors from the Howard crew is Rudd’s greatest achievement. It might, and no doubt will, be objected that - “lefties would say that, wouldn’t they?” But I think there are a couple of points here. First, there is no doubt that a government with a more humanitarian tinge and an appreciation of propriety and ethics is to be welcomed, and that sentiment - along with the promise keeping - will be a contributor to Labor’s continuing lead in the polls. Secondly, I think The Howard Years has been interestingly timed to stimulate some comparison and to reinforce the whole sense of relief that we don’t have that turgid mob to kick around any more.

But, again, one thing that wore out the Coalition’s welcome with the electorate was the constant “rabbits out of the hat” and the whole bag of divisive tricks, along with the internal ructions and the cockiness of ministers. I agree that the Liberals are still playing at the same game in many ways. John Howard was elected in 1996 as a safe pair of hands and the Libs were “the party of order”, if you like. By the end of their fourth term, they looked like the risky and unsafe proposition and Kevin Rudd’s calm demeanour undoubtedly contributed much to Labor’s victory. WorkChoices was also probably the biggest single mistake the Coalition made, and the related apprehension that worse would follow and more leadership instability also condemned the Howard government to defeat.

But what of policy, and that shibboleth beloved of the punditariat, “the narrative”? Continue reading ‘Rudd one year on’

Open Rudd government first anniversary thread

I’m sticking to my no politics on the weekend rule, and have a busy day tomorrow, so I’m going to save up my thoughts on the first anniversary of the defeat of the Howard government and the election of the Rudd Labor government for later on. But there’s no doubt that there will be a fair bit of discussion about it, so please feel free to use this thread for posting links, and making any observations you may have. I think it is a useful milestone to place the government’s performance in some sort of perspective that’s deeper and less transient than the everyday trivialities of most political commentary.

Update: Here’s my take, focusing more on politics than policy. Graham Young looks at the deficit issue. An Onymous Lefty emphasises the Not Howard issue. At Crikey, Bernard Keane wishes everyone a Happy Kruddiversary and readers weigh in, and Scott Bridges writes in New Matilda.

Update: Andrew Bartlett notes the anniversary and the fact that it happily coincides with the long over due removal of statutory discrimination against same sex couples.

Emissions tech tidbits

Another CCS project is getting underway in Australia, this time in Queensland. This time, the project involves retrofitting the Callide A power station with oxyfuel technology. This is the same technology used in the pilot plant in Germany mentioned in an earlier story. At the time, I thought that oxyfuel was most likely only to be used for new power plants, not retrofitting existing ones. However, just because an existing power station is used for a pilot project doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to be economic to retrofit commercial-scale ones (if indeed CCS using this technology is economic at all). The project website is remarkably uninformative on this point. The pilot project should be fully operational in 2011 and may operate for up to five years.

Meanwhile, in the renewables world, one of the major limitations of wind turbines is that they only operate efficiently in a very narrow range of wind speeds, meaning much of the time they produce very little power, requiring expensive energy storage systems or backup generation to support them if they become a substantial fraction of an energy grid. There are already a number of ways to reduce this impact - turbine blades that adjust their pitch, mechanical gearboxes, and, most recently, fitting multiple generators to wind turbines, and only engaging some subset of them when the wind is weak. MIT Technology Review reports on a company developing a new approach - an a new generator design. Essentially, generators use the rotating shaft to move magnets past coils of wire to produce electricity. The new design has many independent coils, which can be switched on or off by electronic switches. If the wind is low, only a few coils are connected, allowing the blades to keep turning and generating at least some electriity. As wind speed increases, more coils can be enabled, requiring more energy to turn the blades, and thus generating more energy while the blades continue to operate at similar speeds. According to the company’s simulations, the new generators could increase annual power output by 50 to 100%, depending on the site - obviously, the more variable the winds at a site, the bigger the improvement. Now all they need is to actually deploy a prototype, scheduled for “early next year”. Sounds very promising, but as usual be prepared for a big gap between the press release and the reality.

Finally, the BP Solar cell factory in Sydney is closing because it’s too small to compete against plants overseas, and it’s too far away from its suppliers of things like ultrapure silicon. The government isn’t raising a finger to save this manufacturing facility. You might very well ask why the car industry deserves support and the solar cell industry doesn’t.

Possum versus Bolt

Possum takes on Andrew Bolt on the topic of his distorted and inflammatory misuse of statistics:

Andrew Bolt has been banging on about Africans again- Sudanese and Somalian born Africans in particular and their crime rates compared to the Victorian population as a whole. It stems back to some arsehattery about how Victorian Police Commissioner Christine Nixon might have produced statistics that Bolt found misleading on the issue of Sudanese migrant crime rates in Victoria last year – stats that she gave in response to a Kevin Andrews spiel about the same.

Go read the rest!

Hicks and Haneef

David Hicks will finally be able to get on with his life. The AFP has stated that there will be no new control order sought when the current one expires on December. Finally, Hicks’ abuse at the hands of two legal systems appears to be over. Here’s hoping that he can make a go of it.

Meanwhile, the Clarke Inquiry’s report has been handed over to the government. Hopefully an unclassified version will be publicly released in the near future. The upshot is likely to be that Mick Keelty’s time as AFP head will end; perhaps other senior AFP officers may follow him.

The bigger question is whether some of the more outrageous bits of legal machinery that made Haneef’s treatment possible will end. Frankly, I doubt it. The one example where Labor has acted on a perversion of justice - mandatory detention - they were at pains to pretend that they weren’t doing so. I think a similar thing will happen here. At best, a new AFP head will be appointed, new guidelines will be written so that the more outrageous “anti-terrorist” powers are no longer used, and maybe they’ll quietly get squashed as part of a broader review in a decade’s time. Maybe the sedition laws might go, but with this government’s commitment to censoring the interwebs demonstrating a pretty casual attitude to free speech, maybe not.

The truth of polls and the epistemology of politics

The Poll Bludger has the numbers on the latest Nielsen poll for Victoria. Labor leads on the 2PP 55-45.

The Age trumpets this result as Victorian Labor “defying the national trend”. No doubt other papers are saying the same - I haven’t looked.

I’ve been arguing for a while that there is insufficient evidence to conclude that there is a national trend against Labor, and that in fact thinking about disparate polls in seven different jurisdictions with differing political histories, cultures and current circumstances as constituting a trend makes little sense. My contention for a long time has been that elections are unrepeatable and singular events and that epistemologically we can know much less about electoral behaviour and find grounds for prediction with much less certainty than we think. Political behaviour follows few laws and a lot of conclusions reached after the fact are questionable.

But there is a sort of reflexivity feedback loop built into the way we think about politics and the way polls are reported. Particularly at state level - where polls are few and far between - one poll which struggles to form a series can have a large impact on perceptions, and thus the interpretations of the public and the press and the morale of politicians and “momentum”.

Continue reading ‘The truth of polls and the epistemology of politics’

Don’t mention the Nationals (or the Liberals, or the environment)

This morning the Queensland Liberal-National Party’s latest television advertisement hit the airwaves, jostling for our attention with Amber Higlett’s early news show on Channel Nine. The ad can also be viewed here.

The ad features Laurence Springborg declaring his pride in presiding over the formation of “the LNP” as the first step towards “change in Queensland”. Said change will include things to do with schools, employment, housing and hospitals, and also making Queensland a place “where roads are planned for future growth”.

Two interesting things strike me about the advertisement.
Continue reading ‘Don’t mention the Nationals (or the Liberals, or the environment)’

Spend, spend, spend! It’s your patriotic duty… or something

The stock market has lost 51% of its value since its peak, a decline we’re told now exceeds the destruction of value seen in 1987. On the ABC News tonight, Alan Kohler grimly pointed to an index (tradeable, I think, but don’t quote me on that) of future sentiment which is apparently dire, and which apparently depressed that reified hive mind “the markets” even further. On Lateline Business, a British fellow in a very smart three piece pin stripe suit bemoaned the fact that all rationality in terms of valuation had departed from equities market, and what was left was “pure human sentiment” which apparently “isn’t pretty”. I think John Maynard Keynes might have had something to say about all that.

The stock market’s fall may also have had something to do with evidence of a growing deflation in consumer prices in America, or so opinionators opined. Well, I guess we don’t have the “inflation dragon” to kick around anymore.

And we’ve had another outpouring of deficit aversion, bipartisanship at last (!), in response to Glenn Steven’s expression of the belief that the government had a responsibility to “borrow to invest”.

And, yet, we’ve had a piece of prime silliness - to put alongside all these other signs of the times - in Crikey’s editorial:

There’s not a lot politicians can do. The Government handing money to low income earners who’ll have virtually no choice but to spend it makes sense, but there’s only a limited number of times a $10b heart-starter can be administered to the economy. Even the Opposition has been doing its bit lately, prefacing virtually every statement on the economy with the mantra that Australia is best-placed to weather these difficulties.

And there’s not much businesses can do without demand. It’s actually up to us consumers to realise Australia’s economic fate is in our hands, and act accordingly.

Righteo. Continue reading ‘Spend, spend, spend! It’s your patriotic duty… or something’

Stormy weather!

I’m no climatologist, but it’s been a very long time since I’ve seen storms with as much force as we’ve now experienced in Brisbane and South East Queensland three times in four days, most recently about an hour ago, and with another one also accompanied by severe hail and dangerous winds apparently on the way yet again later on tonight.

Here are some images licenced under Creative Commons from flickr. Two aren’t actually of the most recent storms, but for those who aren’t used to a classic Brisbane storm, they might provide a bit of a lightning flash of illumination. Over at Circulating Library, there are also some contemporary photos to look at. Taking photos might be a tad risky, actually, as one of the two deaths from the storms has been a young man who unwisely tried to photograph a stormwater drain at Chermside on Sunday night. Via Stilgherrian, you can also have a squizzy at archived radar images of last night’s storms here. When I checked at around 5pm it was impossible to get on to the BOM site to check tonight’s storms on their way, and the site also couldn’t cope with the traffic just after the ABC weather at the end of the news.

courtesy of Garry’

courtesy of supernicko

courtesy of Michael Henderson

Continue reading ‘Stormy weather!’

White House soon no longer part of the problem (sort of)

Continue reading ‘White House soon no longer part of the problem (sort of)’

Bill Ayers talks

He was probably one of the most referenced names in the 2008 US election. But he deliberately chose not to comment on the linking of his name with Obama and “domestic terrorism”. Now Bill Ayers has given an interview to Salon. Two things I found particularly interesting - it does appear clear that his acquaintance with Obama was slight (and that Obama was unaware of his past at the campaign coffee in 1995), and perhaps more revelatory - what it feels like to be at the centre of a political firestorm and to be demonised.

Ayers says:

Continue reading ‘Bill Ayers talks’

Let’s ban postmodernism!

I think it was klaus k who once suggested on this blog that we should completely eschew the word “postmodernism”, so vacuous and meaningless has it become. That seems a proposal worth reviving when you read an astonishing take on the ABC’s decision to reallocate resources away from specialist Radio National programs, particularly the Religion Report.

The questions facing mankind are, essentially, the same as they have always been: the age-old questions about what is good, true and beautiful. How do we identify those characteristics in our own and others’ behaviour? How do we achieve them in our lives?

Inevitably, we will never answer them validly if - confusing the medium with the message, to put it in Marshall McLuhan’s discredited formula - we confuse the garments for the person, the cover for the book.

Apparently, the ABC’s remit is to pose (or answer?) eternal questions, and any management decision about Radio National demonstrates “relativism” and that “they hate religion”.

I’m actually not a huge fan of Stephen Crittenden’s, but there can be no doubt that discussing programming decisions in this fashion is, well, just demented. Continue reading ‘Let’s ban postmodernism!’

Social networks, online media and politics

There are a couple of very interesting contributions today about the Obama experience online and where it goes to from here - from my QUT colleagues Axel Bruns at Gatewatching and Barry Saunders at ABC Opinion. Saunders also has some acerbic comments about Stephen Conroy and the “inane internet censorship proposal”, which certainly seems completely contradictory for a party ostensibly attempting to harness the power of online participation, among its many other demerits.

Breaking news: Dick Cheney indicted

From Crooks & Liars:

Not much info in the piece because the information is not public yet, but a DA has indicted Cheney and Alberto Gonzalez and a few others on charges that are related to corruption in the private prison system following an inmate’s death. And not surprisingly, there’s some profiteering involved.

While there’s a lot of sentiment around regarding war crimes prosecutions for the Bushies, that’s always been completely outside the bounds of possibility. But the extent of dodginess of some of their dealings domestically does make it probable that facts will be uncovered, allegations made and indictments issued. However, it’s also highly likely that George W. Bush will use his power of presidential pardon on leaving office to spare his apparatchiks. Nevertheless, it may well be that much of the routine criminality that appears to be part of the modus operandi of the Republican military-industrial complex will be exposed and on the public record.

Update: More on the indictment from Discourse.net here and here.

More Christmas presents from the Reserve Bank

Peter Martin predicts that the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates again by at least 0.75%, and possibly 1%, when it meets on December 2.

If you take the pessimistic view, you might argue that the Bank is scared out of its wits by the possibility of a severe recession. If you’re a bit more of an optimist, you could equally take the view that the bank is prepared to do whatever it takes to avoid one. The RBA has already cut official interest rates by 2% since September; a 0.75% cut would take us back to the lowest level since September 2001. According to Martin’s article, the markets are predicting a cash rate of 3.5% by the middle of May, “which would be the lowest level since the 1950s.”

Continue reading ‘More Christmas presents from the Reserve Bank’