Archive for the 'Queensland' Category

The budget is not the economy

I think there are quite a few self-inflicted political problems for Queensland Labor in the presentation of the budget handed down on Tuesday afternoon. But Anna Bligh and Andrew Fraser certainly aren’t helped by the ubiquity of the ‘debt is evil’ theme. Witness George Megalogenis’ front page column in The Australian yesterday:

QUEENSLAND has replaced the usual suspect of NSW as the nation’s sickest state and threatens to drag Australia into a prolonged recession.

Queensland has by far the worst budget position of all the states, and its citizens face the sharpest fall in living standards as unemployment is forecast to almost double in the next two years, from 4.25per cent to 7.25 per cent.

In fact the budget projections show Queensland below the national average in unemployment, and contracting less than the national economy. It is certainly legitimate to question the Bligh government’s economic strategy – and also to question why more wasn’t done in the Beattie years to build up infrastructure and public services. But Megalogenis’ argument conflates the state’s fiscal position with the health of Queensland’s economy in a false and unhelpful way… though it’s probably less unhelpful to Bligh than the “85 billion on the credit card” front page in the Courier-Mail yesterday. Perhaps she can take some comfort from the fact that the C-M’s overt bias towards the LNP had no discernible impact on the March election result.

New LNP leader John-Paul Langbroek delivers his reply in Parliament today. No doubt it will be all about debt and deficits. The ALP is more interested in beating up stories about a leadership challenge, part of a move to wedge and split the LNP on the privatisation bills. It’s a mystery to me why Labor Ministers would be chortling about the prospect of LNP (probably former National) members voting against a firesale of state assets.

Ps: For those interested, the Queensland budget papers can be found here.

What’s with Anna Bligh?

In the wake of the unnecessary firesale of state assets, the Bligh government has continued down its merry path of trashing Labor policy. Last week we had the refusal to take any action over the charges laid against a 19 year old Cairns woman for “procuring an abortion” by using RU486. Now, it seems, we’re going to see Bligh “muscle up” and take on the public sector unions by reneging on a promise made for pay increases of 4.5%, 4% and 4% over the next three years of enterprise bargaining agreements. The government has already been slashing casual and short term employment across departments and state agencies. Tomorrow’s budget is rumoured to contain cuts to public sector superannuation entitlements and we know that it will place a cap of 2.5% on pay increases.

The state election campaign was a shambolic affair, and it was almost lost. Despite an inept performance, Labor was re-elected primarily because the “jobs” theme and the promise to continue to invest in public infrastructure despite the economic crisis touched a chord with voters. Anna Bligh made much of standing up to credit rating agencies.

So why the turnaround? A couple of factors are at work. The first is Bligh’s inability to set her own direction, adopting rather the path of least resistance recommended by right wing apparatchiks in her office. Let one grumpy voter in a focus group whine about debt, and, well, forget the election promises. Secondly, there’s the misplaced obsession with “strength”, driven by the same advisers. This apparently means tossing Labor policy out the window and pursuing supposedly popular brawls with unions.

This mob have an inability to understand that Labor governments always need to pursue a direction contrary to that favoured by the big end of town to be a success. Talk of ‘reforms’ in the context of short-sighted privatisations is quite risible in this context.

Nor is Bligh apparently capable of learning from the past. Wayne Goss’ government was defeated not by the ‘Koala road’, but in large part because years of managerialist lunacy alienated the public sector vote. Similarly, the slashing of services in outer suburban and regional areas and decisions such as the one to close down the QR workshops in Ipswich in the midst of a recession and deep structural economic change had a lot more to do with the rise of One Nation than some innate Queensland redneckism.

Peter Beattie knew all this.

The irony – or rather, one of the many ironies – is that the government and top bureaucrats have recently been pontificating about the need for public sector spending to create demand in a sluggish economy. That seems – insofar as it means anything – only to apply to bricks and mortar and roads and bridges and to completely eschew people’s livelihoods. All ‘Bligh the Builder’ is paving the way for at the moment is her own defeat.

Years ago the Queensland government owned 90 butcher shops – Anna Bligh’s defence

She did say that in her speech to Parliament:

At times in our history the government of Queensland has sold beer, sawn and milled timber, retailed fish and even had 90 state owned butcher shops.

In Brisbane, our electricity network wasn’t state owned until 1977. And we didn’t own power stations until then either.

We’ve always owned a railway, but never owned a communications company. While we’ve retailed fish and meat, we’ve never been greengrocers.

So Bligh is arguing that what states own over time changes, and changed circumstances require decisions about what assets a state should own and what trading enterprises a state should be involved in.

She was actually quite articulate and even eloquent in the several times I’ve heard her on local ABC radio. And the speech in parliament is not bad at all. It’s just that people don’t listen. As soon as the interview ended callers, probably about 3 to one, rang in expressing visceral displeasure in no uncertain terms.

Continue reading ‘Years ago the Queensland government owned 90 butcher shops – Anna Bligh’s defence’

Anna Bligh’s privatisation train will run off the rails

Intoning the phrase ‘Global Financial Crisis’ at every opportunity, Queensland Premier Anna Bligh has been preparing the ground for the privatisation of a wide range of state assets. It was confirmed today that QR’s freight train business would be among the government owned enterprises flogged off.

Bligh seems to be assuming that selling the freight business will be less unpopular than privatising passenger rail. Maybe, maybe not. The unions are certainly unhappy. But hiving off the profitable bits of QR is just nuts. Aside from the economies of scale that will be lost, the lack of a cross-subsidy for public transport will cause immense problems further down the track. That will be compounded by the government’s quick return to an aversion to public spending, which is a complete backflip from its winning electoral message.

Queensland Labor never previously went down the privatisation track favoured in other states. Peter Beattie was happy to retain some fat in QR over a period of years to cushion the impact of restructuring on jobs. There’s also previously been a perception that diseconomies would result from selling off profitable bits of public assets in such a geographically huge state with such a dispersed population. Cross-subsidy is the only model that works for public services in this state.

Continue reading ‘Anna Bligh’s privatisation train will run off the rails’

Hot dentist with famous sibling to lead LNP

From today’s Crikey email:

Queensland has a new opposition leader. Former Liberal and Member for Surfers Paradise, John-Paul Langbroek was yesterday elected leader of the LNP, beating Clayfield MP Tim Nicholls by a narrow margin after the elimination of former Nationals Deputy Leader Fiona Simpson on the first ballot.

Outgoing leader Lawrence Springborg was elected Deputy Leader over Rob Messenger and Jeff Seeney. Seeney was toppled by Springborg early in 2007, and never buried the hatchet. His pointed remarks about the necessity of representing rural and regional voters won’t have gone unnoticed.

The eccentric Messenger remarked that Langbroek was the “best looking member of parliament”. Langbroek is the brother of The Panel’s Kate and a practising dentist. A former Health and Education shadow, he made little impact on either portfolio. Langbroek still practices to maintain his registration and has faced charges that his dental work was a higher priority than his parliamentary duties. He’d previously been Tim Nicholls’ candidate for Liberal Deputy in the notorious “toss of the coin” impasse when Bruce Flegg was toppled. However, Nicholls’ uncertain performance as Shadow Treasurer and factional heavy and former Senator Santo Santoro’s overt support counted against his chances.

From about 8pm on election night, LNP figures conceded that it was necessary to have a leader from South East Queensland who would present an electable face to urban voters.

Langbroek nevertheless faces a daunting task. Continue reading ‘Hot dentist with famous sibling to lead LNP’

How Labor won in Queensland

Welcome to the Bligh heterogeneity! And living with heterogeneity is a much better prospect than assimilation into the hivemind of The Borg. I’m still thinking that whoever came up with the bright idea of applying that moniker to Lawrence perhaps wasn’t that big a Trekkie.

Over at Pineapple Party Time, I’ve told the untold story of how Labor turned the campaign around from certain defeat earlier into the week into a stunning personal victory for Anna Bligh. Far from a narrow escape, the Queensland ALP won 53 seats, a 17 seat majority. The ramifications of this victory will be enormous.

Queensland election live and online tonight!

We’ve got a real contest on our hands in the Smart State (perhaps over the future of that moniker!) as Queenslanders vote today. At Crikey’s dedicated Qld election blog, Possum, William “The Poll Bludger” Bowe and I will be liveblogging the count tonight from about 6pm Brisbane time.

Details will be posted later this arvo, and you can also check out Pineapple Party Time for the latest polling, analysis and distributed news about polling day vibes and shenanigans.

I’ve just put up a prediction/seats to watch post. The upshot is that I’m tipping Labor 45, LNP 40, Ind 4. The seats in question and my reasoning (and why I think the vote has swung back in Labor’s direction) are explained here.

William and I will also be doing intermittent audio updates via Skype and livestreaming at The Sunday Talk throughout the evening.

Those outside Queensland or away from a tv who are interested in following the ABC’s coverage can access a livestream at Antony Green’s election page.

Update: The liveblogging will take place here.

Update: [by Mark] William and I will be chatting to Matthew Kopelke at The Sunday Talk on the hour and at half past the hour respectively, with me kicking off at 6.30pm Queensland Time. You can listen here.

Newspoll: Queensland election evenly poised

Primaries are 41.7% Labor and 42.1% LNP with the 2PP at 49.9% ALP and 50.1% LNP. Details at Pineapple Party Time.

Crikey livechat on Queensland election

There will be a livechat on the Queensland election at Pineapple Party Time from 2pm today with Crikey political correspondent Bernard Keane and my PPT co-bloggers Possum and William Bowe. Unfortunately I can’t join in, because it clashes with a class I teach this arvo. But pull up a deckchair, mix a cocktail in a pineapple, and yarn away about a still very unpredictable contest.

I’ll be letting folks know tomorrow about liveblogging from the crew and some podcasts from me coinciding with the count after the votes are all in!

Borg can’t be sold to Brisbane; Nor Bligh to Beattie’s battlers

From today’s Crikey email:

I don’t often agree with former ALP Senator John Black’s political analysis — he places too much weight on demographics for my liking — but I did nod my head vigorously when reading his piece on the Queensland election in yesterday’s Financial Review.

Black argued that the same cohort of voters who Peter Beattie held through three successive landslides, who swung to Kevin Rudd and the federal ALP in 2007 after a long incarnation as “Howard’s battlers”, are in danger of deserting state Labor tomorrow. These voters are on low to middle incomes, socially conservative and worried about services and jobs. Many of them are the same voters, or coming from the same place, as the folk who gave One Nation 25% of the state vote in 1998. They’re also the same voters who swung some regional seats further in Labor’s direction in 2006 out of anger at WorkChoices.

While there’s often been an assumption in speculation about this campaign that Lawrence Springborg couldn’t easily be sold in Brisbane, few seem to have asked — until the swing became obvious — whether Anna Bligh could hold onto Beattie’s vote on the urban fringes and in the regions. Under Beattie, the very model of a blokey Queensland populist, a complex backflip could be executed where he surrounded himself with urbane Ministers — think Matt Foley and one Anna Bligh, talked up biotech and creative industries and cosmopolitanism, but still projected down home Canberra hating parochialism and praised Joh to the skies on well timed occasions. But all the hard hats in the world haven’t dispelled Bligh’s urbane image.

There’s more to the puzzle than this. Lawrence Springborg is no Barnaby Joyce, and doesn’t bang the populist drum like Nationals past. He’s more attuned to the monotonous tone of moderation. So neither leader has really convinced — anywhere much.

The other side of the coin is that a big chunk of the urban base Labor relied on is fleeing at a frightening rate of knots — parked with the Greens, not so much out of conviction, but out of disappointment at a Labor party that appears directionless and managerialist yet without the competence. Continue reading ‘Borg can’t be sold to Brisbane; Nor Bligh to Beattie’s battlers’

Queensland Labor machine runs off the track

I observed on Pineapple Party Time at the beginning of the week that the blame game inside the ALP about the failings of the Queensland campaign had started to leak out into the media. Evidently, some Labor types have been bending Andrew Crook’s ear as well, if his story in Crikey today is any indication. It’s a sad tale of strategic hubris mixed with a healthy dollop of organisational chaos. If the ALP can pull a win out of this campaign, it will be despite not because of the campaign.

Cross-posted at Pineapple Party Time.

Polling shows Labor on track for a loss in Queensland

If the story William Bowe has linked to this morning at Pineapple Party Time about Labor tracking polls showing swings of up to 10% in seats with margins of up to 8% in and around Brisbane and a collapse in Greens preference flows to the ALP is accurate, Labor is probably toast on Saturday.

More later on today.

Update: I’ll be on the ABC’s The World Today program on radio at 11am this morning (Brisbane Time) talking to Annie Guest about the leaked polling discussed in this post.

Update: My story from today’s Crikey email is posted beneath the fold.

Continue reading ‘Polling shows Labor on track for a loss in Queensland’

Those photos and a right to privacy in Australia

I’ve avoided any commentary on the purported photos of Pauline Hanson published this week for two reasons. Firstly, I don’t think the media needs yet another excuse to cover trivialities instead of issues in the current Queensland election campaign. Secondly, I don’t believe that the photos – whomever they depict (and Hanson now denies they are of her – with a fair bit of support from forensic experts) – are of sufficient public interest to publish. However, there are aspects of this tawdry affair which transcend its tackiness – the whole issue of a potential right to privacy in Australian law. So I did want to link to a post from Skepticlawyer which examines that issue comprehensively and well.

Cross-posted at Pineapple Party Time.

Update: Crikey editor Jonathan Green has made a complaint to the Press Council over the publication of the photos.

The oil spill

Crikey’s Andrew Crook has written a comprehensive investigative piece on the oil spill which dominated the news in Queensland for days and spilled over into the election campaign. It’s free content on the Crikey website.

Bridging the gap: What does it mean to be a Queenslander? II

At Pineapple Party Time, I’ve written a sequel to my earlier post on the political difficulties both the LNP and ALP are having in constructing a campaign which can appeal across the “new” and “old” Queensland – a trick Peter Beattie managed.

In other election news, William Bowe has chanced his hand at a seat by seat prediction.